In general, the estimates prepared by SLS, MPCV, and 21CGS are consistent with Analysis of Alternative (AoA) level estimates and are reasonable point estimates for budget planning in the near-term 3-5 year budget horizon. They are serviceable in that they represent the basis to build upon for future life-cycle cost estimates of the quality required for long-term budget formulation and the development of program baselines. None of the estimates reviewed by the ICA Team support establishment of long-term budgets or detailed baselines consistent with NPR 7120.5 requirements. They are, however, reasonable AoA estimates appropriate for supporting trade studies and comparative analyses. All three Program estimates assume large, unsubstantiated, future cost efficiencies leading to the impression that they are optimistic. A scenario-based risk assessment, which excludes cost estimating uncertainty and unknown-unknown risks (historically major sources of cost and schedule growth), reveals all three Programs’ reserves are insufficient.
Download complete document
- 'Technology first' for future homes
- Powering up a net-zero-energy enclave
- Pioneer Trail Crafting Workshop Collection hints at future building?
- 'Utopian' floating city that shows promises of future life at sea
- What would a future cyberwar look like?
- Futuristic Computer Carries only CPU
- Future computer needs no monitor
- Facebook Rolls the Carpet for Agency Friends
- NL Playing Crucial Role in Ocean Research
- Future Computer Chips Will Make More Mistakes (And That's a Good Thing)
Submited at Wednesday, August 24th, 2011 at 3:00 pm on Uncategorized by ethan
Comment RSS 2.0 - leave a comment - trackback